Baccarat Strategy – How to Win at Baccarat More Often and Get the Best Odds

10 minutes

Last Updated: October 25, 2023

baccarat strategy

Baccarat is one of the most famous gambling games out there and one that high-stakes players tend to have a preference for.

The reasons for the game’s popularity are many, but the low house edge and the extremely thrilling experience of winning and losing quickly on each hand are some of the key ones.

Like in all gambling games, the casino maintains an edge in Baccarat at all times, which means it’s impossible to formulate a Baccarat strategy that guarantees a win.

However, there are many Baccarat strategies that can work and help you win more often and lose less by improving your odds and reducing your variance.

I am going to teach you what bets to make, which Baccarat strategies to apply, and how to play the game to give yourself the best possible winning odds.

How to Win at Baccarat? Start with the Basics!

Before you can have any real chance of winning at Baccarat, you will need to learn the basic rules of the game and the way different bets work, along with their winning odds and the house edge.

The game offers you three different betting options in each hand, and these are the Banker, the Player, and Tie.

It is important to remember that, unlike games like Blackjack, you won’t actually be dealt a hand yourself. The Banker and the Player are simply two hands that are dealt across the table, which you don’t get to influence in any way.

The game plays down to which player gets a total value closer to nine, with various rules applying to counting the cards.

At the end of the day, you won't even have to know these rules because the dealer will always deal out the whole hand without any input from you.

This means that the only real choice you have in Baccarat is which side to bet on, and all Baccarat strategy has to do with this and the way you structure your betting.

It is important to know that the Banker's hand is actually a slight statistical favorite to win against the Player, which makes this bet the most favorable to make.

However, most casinos charge a small fee on all wins you bag when betting the Banker, which negates the additional edge you can claim by betting the Banker.

Yet, you will win more often if you bet on the Banker, which is why most experienced players bet on the Banker almost every single hand.

Choosing Your Bet

The first part of any Baccarat strategy will be choosing which side to bet on and when, if ever, you should switch it up.

If you want to go by pure math, this is how often each of the three outcomes happens in a classic game of Baccarat:

  • Tie: 9.45% of Hands
  • Player: 44.61% of Hands
  • Banker: 45.84% of Hands

As you can see, the Banker will win about one hand more than the Player over a sample of 100 hands, while about nine and a half hands will be tied. These numbers remain the same whether you play at a land-based or online casino.

While there are few reasons to bet on the Player often, there is pretty much no reason to bet on Tie, as the winning odds of this bet do not correspond to the payout of 8:1, making it by far the most unfavorable bet in the game.

For all intents and purposes, you should look at Baccarat as a game with only two betting options, the Player and the Banker, and completely disregard the Tie option.

Betting on the Banker

Most Baccarat strategies focus on betting the Banker almost every hand, and for a good reason. As I have already explained, the Banker bet wins about 45.84% of hands, but this is actually the worst-case scenario.

In some versions of Baccarat, depending on the exact rules, the Banker can win as many as 50% of all hands, making it a great option to bet on.

Yet, the fact that most casinos charge a 5% fee on Banker wins means you won’t have an edge over the casino by simply betting on this side of the aisle.

Yet, there is also no good reason not to bet on the Banker. Whether a commission is charged or not, you will always end up winning at least the same amount with the Banker bets as you would with the Player bets if you would never change your bet between hands.

Betting on the Player

The Player bet has its place in many Baccarat strategies as well, as it is the one that is not affected by any commissions.

If you are going to use one of the betting systems, which I will discuss later on, you will probably want to use the Player bet as your default.

Betting progression systems like the Martingale depend on winning exactly double your bet when you do win, and the commissions tend to skew the numbers and make the strategy imperfect.

While the Banker bet is a slight mathematical favorite to win, the Player bet does have an advantage when it comes to mathematical progression strategies that are used by a great number of Baccarat players out there.

Betting on the Tie

This brings me to the last of the three Baccarat bets, the Tie. Unfortunately, this bet is simply out there to eat at players’ bankrolls by playing tricks on people’s minds.

Just under 10% of all hands are tied in Baccarat, and the game only pays 8:1, suggesting it should happen one out of nine times.

Hence, the house maintains a massive edge of 14.4% on the Tie bet, making it one of the worst bets not only in Baccarat but in all casino games.

For comparison, the other two bets in Baccarat give the casino a 1.06% and 1.26% edge, which means betting Tie instead would make you lose money at a 13 or 14 times faster pace.

If you want to know how to win at Baccarat, the first thing you should remember is never to bet on a Tie no matter what and don't let anyone tell you otherwise.

Baccarat Betting Systems

Now that you know how to play the game and which bets to make more often, I should talk about some actual Baccarat strategies and how you can apply them in your game.

After choosing your bet, you will also have the option to choose how much you bet on each spin, and this is also a big choice to make.

Mathematical progression systems are perhaps the most commonly used systems, with most players basing their bets on some kind of progression.

Negative Mathematical Progression

Negative progression Baccarat strategies are the most popular and probably the most successful ones out there.

Common strategies like Martingale and Fibonacci fall into this category, and they all have one thing in common; the player increases his bet after a loss.

To take the example of the Martingale betting progression, this system relies on doubling your bet after every loss, meaning you always come out as a winner once your side of the bet wins.

The bad thing about negative progression strategies is that you have to keep upping your bet while losing, which means you can end up having to make some pretty hefty bets to win a small amount in the end.

Additionally, most Baccarat tables have a betting limit, and most players have a limited bankroll, which means you must be careful about your starting bet and your expectations.

Positive Mathematical Progression

If you want to take some big risks and try to spin up a big win, a positive progression Baccarat strategy will probably be best for you.

This type of Baccarat betting strategy relies on you increasing your bets whenever you win, whether you double them or simply kick them up a notch.

You can make your own strategy for this or follow a premade one, but setting a limit at which you revert to your original bet is probably the best way to go.

These Baccarat betting strategies look to capitalize on any winning streaks you may run into and trying to get lucky enough to make your wins outweigh your losses.

Flat Baccarat Betting

If you are looking to have some fun and let your luck decide your fate for the night without too much interference, a flat Baccarat betting strategy can be great.

If you bet on the Banker, each hand, you will have just under a 50% chance to win a hand, and with a sufficient bankroll, you could play for many hours without busting.

In fact, on some lucky nights, you will end up winning a few bets over a few hours. On other nights, you may lose a few bets, all while enjoying the fun of the game, sipping on your drinks, and not stressing too much.

A flat betting Baccarat strategy is definitely the most stress-free way to play the game, so if you are not a big risk taker, you should probably play the game using this strategy.

Top 5 Baccarat Tips to Boost Your Odds

We have gone over the most basic elements of the game of Baccarat and some Baccarat betting strategies, but there are still some things left to be said.

These are the top 5 Baccarat strategy tips that I can give you that will make your life easier and your time at the Baccarat tables a lot more fun.

#1 There Are No Hot Tables

Finding a hot table to play at is the dream of many Baccarat players, but it is an absolute superstition and something that doesn't really exist.

The truth is that any table and any seat at the table will give you the same kind of end results over the long run, while any given night will go one way or another, depending on luck.

You can do your best to play the game to the best of your ability, but don’t look for lucky or hot tables or try to get an edge over the casino in ways that don’t really exist.

#2 Last Hand Doesn’t Matter

Players often look for patterns at Baccarat tables and try to make up their Baccarat strategy around when streaks will start or end.

The truth is that there are no patterns, and the result of the last hand, last 10 hands, or last 100 hands, don't matter at all.

Every time a new hand is dealt, new cards will come out, and there will be a new outcome completely unrelated to previous hands.

Approach each new hand of Baccarat as a completely new event and make up your strategy unrelated to any patterns.

#3 Ignore the Tie Bet

I already mentioned this earlier, but it's worth saying twice; play the game of Baccarat as if the Tie bet did not exist because it is a complete waste of your money.

Sure enough, some hands will end in a Tie, but the payouts you will get will not be enough to cover your losses, and you will be losing big over the long run if you bet on Tie even just sometimes.

Always bet on either the Banker or the Player, and forget about Tie existing at all to make your Baccarat strategy more solid.

#4 Bet on the Player with Betting Systems

If you are going to use one of the Baccarat betting systems like Martingale, which includes changing up your bet depending on results, you should usually bet on the Player.

The Tie bet is out of the question, while the Player bet comes with a commission, which will affect your wins and may make the strategy not work properly.

The Player bet comes with a very low house edge and just under a 50% winning chance, which means you can get plenty of bets in and keep your progression going without issues.

#5 Play Responsibly

Baccarat is a game that can easily get out of hand if you start upping your bets and trying to win back your losses.

It can be easy to assume that the next hand must go your way and increase the bet to try and win it all back in one fell swoop, but this is a sure way to win fast.

Instead, play responsibly, stick to your budget and your Baccarat betting strategy, and always quit when you lose the amount you planned to play with for the day.

Formulate Your Ultimate Baccarat Strategy

I would be lying to you if I said there was one magical strategy to win at Baccarat every single time; there simply isn’t!

Yet, there are many different ways you can approach the game and many Baccarat betting strategies you can apply to improve your chances.

Use this guide and other information out there to formulate your strategy before you hit the tables. Remember to always stick to your plan and your strategy and take advantage of casino bonuses to avoid chasing losses or losing the money you don't need to lose.

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